Ergis Sefa, an economics expert, was invited to "This Week" with Nisida Tufa, in News24, where he made an analysis of the economic consequences
He explained that Albania risks inflation if the war continues for several weeks, because we are a country that has the potential to import inflation.
"Inflation is an increase in costs and prices. Not only is inflation produced internally, but we are a typical case of importing it, as our trading partners are the EU, Greece, Italy and Germany. Due to the increase in the price of gas and oil, they increase the cost of their products. Our costs also increase, so it is reflected in the final price.", he said.
Regarding the products affected by the conflict, which has now entered its eighth day, Sefa stated that the first thing that will be affected is oil, a fact that he links to the difficulties of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Oil is the first and its by-products, in the Strait of Hormuz, exceed 1/3 of the fertilizers in the world, those used in agriculture, if transportation becomes difficult, the cost of production in agriculture will increase, which also increases the price of products."
It also affects imported cosmetic products," he said.
The expert also made a prediction regarding the price of oil in our country, saying that if the war continues for more than 4 weeks, the price of oil will exceed 250 lek per liter.
"The price after 4-5 weeks, prices will exceed 100 dollars per barrel, we will have a price increase more than we had in the war in Ukraine. The final price of oil will go up to over 250 lek per liter of oil", he said.
Sefa also spoke about gold and its price, which has often reached records during this time.
"Historically, gold and silver were stores of economic value, even in ancient cultures. Their market value is maintained for centuries. Whenever there is a crisis, central banks and large investors always turn to gold for their reserves. Whenever there is a crisis, the price of gold increases. We are in a significant crisis.", he said.
