ARD's "Deutschlandtrend," a major public opinion poll in Germany, finds that Germans now see the economy as a bigger problem than migration. 85 percent of Germans rate the country's economic situation as not good - the only time there was so little optimism was during the euro crisis.

To learn more, DW's Auron Dodin brings the details.

Are we dealing with justified concern or simply intimidation of the Germans?
A.Dodi: We are dealing with a real current weakness of the German economy, but one that seems more dramatic than it actually is. Two levels are decisive, which are separated from each other. Germans assess the situation in their country as gloomy, but are calm about their personal situation. More than half of the Germans surveyed expect a stable year for themselves. It is precisely this gap in the answers that is significant. DIW, a leading German institute for economic research, has made a clear summary of the situation: the mood among people is bleaker than reality. Such surveys, therefore, measure above all feelings, not how much money people actually have left in their wallets. The figures have recorded fear, not well-being.

So why is the mood in Germany worse than in other countries?
This is the most surprising finding of the data. Excessive pessimism in Germany is deeper than, for example, in Italy or Greece. Although people there have experienced real losses in well-being. Germans, as an average population, are objectively better off than them. But despite this, they look with greater pessimism towards their future. A well-known German analyst, Florence Gaub, who lives in Italy, cites an explanation of Italians, why Italians take things without alarm: because always facing numerous problems had shown them that once everything was solved. But part of the pessimism among Germans is also fed by social media. There, negative news attracts more attention and remains in the mind longer.

But the economic recession in Germany has been real. Isn't Germany really doing worse than other European countries?
Here we must distinguish two things: the growth rate and the level of well-being. In terms of the growth rate, Germany is not performing satisfactorily. Growth in Germany has recently been small, although it is the growth of a very large economy, the third largest in the world. But the European Union as a whole grew more strongly. Spain, France and Poland have had greater growth.

Now, people's well-being measures the level achieved - how well people are doing in absolute terms. And here Germany still stands very high: it has low unemployment, real wages are growing, its per capita income is one of the highest in Europe. A country can grow slowly economically and still be rich. In addition: Germany is no longer in recession, since the beginning of 2026 there has been economic growth. It is above all exports and private consumption that are supporting the recovery. Yes, we do not yet have a real turnaround, but we have a stable basis.

In the "Deutschlandtrend" survey this time, migration is no longer the main topic. Has this issue objectively calmed down?
In terms of sheer numbers, yes, and significantly. First-time asylum applications in 2025 almost halved. This is the lowest level since the Corona era. At the same time, the number of deportations increased, by about a fifth. The main reasons are border controls and a stricter government line.
However, one detail affects this picture: new applications have increased after an initial rejection of asylum. But in the end, significantly fewer migrants have arrived in Germany. Perhaps that is why the heated debate has also calmed down - concerns about the economy have replaced concerns about migration.

So, can we talk about complete success regarding the migration problem?

The word “success” here is a delicate concept, because Germany urgently needs immigration. It needs it for demographic reasons: the Baby Boomer generation is retiring. This is the high-birth rate generation of the 1960s. Every year, around 300.000 more people leave the job market than enter. The DIW Institute calculates that without immigration, the growth potential would quickly fall to zero. Another fact: since 2023, the number of employees registered with social security contributions has only been growing through foreigners. The reason is that more older Germans are retiring than young Germans are being hired.

Without immigration, the workforce would fall by ten percent by 2040. Healthcare, health care and crafts in particular are already suffering. Pensions and welfare are therefore directly dependent on migration.

How does all this fit together – and what would help Germany the most now?
I think we need to clearly distinguish between two things. One is asylum migration, which has recently fallen. The other is labor migration, which Germany is desperately seeking. Given this, a smart path would not be less migration, but more of the migrants who are needed. This is precisely what the reformed Immigration Act for Skilled Workers, which aims to make it easier for qualified workers to come to Germany, is helping. In addition, profound reforms, not just money, would help: less bureaucracy, faster permits, affordable energy. And an abandonment of excessive pessimism. Because even the DIW economic institute warns: Pessimism itself can bring about the crisis we want to prevent.