Serbia began EU membership negotiations in 2014. Progress has been slow. After years of broken promises and stalled reforms, the EU is pressuring Serbia to show it is serious about reforms.

"We expect Serbia to show commitment, both in deeds and words," said Ursula von der Leyen during her visit to the Serbian capital, Belgrade, on October 15.

The President of the European Commission was in Serbia as part of her tour of the Western Balkans to discuss EU enlargement with candidate countries in the region.

That day, she invited Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to come to Brussels a month later so that the two could "take stock together."

It was October; now it's December. According to multiple sources who spoke to DW, the meeting was postponed because Serbia had no progress to report.

On Tuesday (09.12.2025) it was confirmed that President Vučić will travel to Brussels on Wednesday for a meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

What does the EU expect from Serbia?
Nemanja Todorović Stiplija, editor-in-chief of the Belgrade-based independent news portal European Western Balkans, told DW that the European Commission and the European Council have made it clear that Serbia's progress will be measured based on three key issues set out in a document that Serbia submitted to the EU in 2024: improving media freedom, ensuring free and fair elections, and aligning Serbia's foreign policy with that of the EU.

In response to a question from DW, a Commission spokesperson said that in addition to these areas, Serbia is expected to "invest more efforts and make compromises to advance the normalization of relations with Kosovo and to address disinformation and manipulation of information from abroad."

"Serbia needs to step up its efforts for a more sustainable and inclusive rapprochement and assure us of its strategic course, including by supporting the EU's restrictive measures imposed on Russia against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine," the Commission spokesperson said.

Regression in media freedom
So, has Serbia made any progress in these key areas?

While media laws in Serbia have been amended, the changes have not stopped the ongoing erosion of media freedom.

In fact, the European Commission’s latest Progress Report notes a “rollback” in freedom of expression in Serbia, stating that “the environment for journalists, media professionals and media outlets [has] seriously deteriorated.”

The Regulatory Body for Electronic Media (REM) is the main institution responsible for overseeing and ensuring the independence of electronic media in Serbia.

One of its main tasks is to elect new members to the REM council, a process intended to guarantee the body's autonomy. However, the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is accused of manipulating the electoral process to maintain control over REM, thus undermining the independence of the country's broadcast media.

What about free and fair elections?
When it comes to guaranteeing free and fair elections, the only formal change made by the government concerns the amendments to the Law on the Unified Voter Registry.

This change provided for an in-depth audit of the registry, which has not yet been conducted, Rasa Nedeljkov from the NGO Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability (CRTA) told DW.

Nedeljkov says that over the past ten years, the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has made 56 priority recommendations to Serbia on how to improve electoral conditions.

According to ODIHR's own assessment, only four have been implemented.

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground is deteriorating. The recent local elections in Negotin, Mionica and Secanj were marked by physical confrontations, attacks on journalists, observers and opposition members, as well as allegations of a number of irregularities, such as vote manipulation and vote buying.

“Serbia is rapidly sinking into electoral autocracy, where elections have become a farce and have been replaced by violent and orchestrated behavior of voters just to register their presence at polling stations, while their will — through various threats — is being taken away,” says Nedeljkov, referring to reports that people are being bullied into voting in a certain way.

Has Serbia's progress stopped?
Countries that want to join the EU must implement reforms in a number of areas in preparation for membership. Negotiations between the bloc and candidate countries are divided into what are known as chapters and groups.

Serbia has not opened a single chapter or group for more than three years.

In addition, the EU has already postponed the payment of 111 million euros ($129 million) in support from its Growth Plan due to unfulfilled reforms.

In October, the European Parliament adopted a harsh resolution condemning political polarization and state repression in Serbia. The Progress Report that followed noted a step backward not only in media freedom, but also in democracy and fundamental rights.

What does Belgrade want?
Belgrade will hope for a change in Brussels' stance towards Serbia, as this would help the country's leadership both politically and financially.

The government could also sell the opening of a negotiating team in the country as proof of its legitimacy, which has been weakened by more than a year of anti-government and anti-corruption protests.

Furthermore, money from the first part of the EU Growth Plan would help the government fill budget gaps.

The role of EU member states
But such a change no longer depends solely on the Commission, Bojana Selakovic of the civil society coalition National Convention for the EU told DW: EU member states also have a say.

"The Baltic states insist that Serbia must completely abandon its alliance with Russia," she told DW. "Another group - like Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark - is very strict about democracy and the rule of law, while Germany still insists on resolving the Banjska issue," she explains, referring to the armed clash between ethnic Serb militants and Kosovo police in northern Kosovo in September 2023, in which several people were killed.

This explains why Serbia launched an intensive diplomatic effort to change minds across Europe, with the Speaker of the Serbian Parliament, Ana Brnabić, visiting Sweden and its Minister of European Integration, Nemanja Starović, traveling to the Netherlands.

Is Serbia a priority for the EU?
At the same time, Brussels is dealing with other crises that are lowering Serbia on its list of priorities.

International relations expert Dusan Reljic notes that Ursula von der Leyen is currently putting out "much bigger fires" - from the US peace plan for Ukraine to relations with Israel and Gaza.

"Events in Southeast Europe have little relevance for EU policy, because there is no major risk of deterioration. What could trigger a deeper or stronger EU reaction is if it becomes clear again that Aleksandar Vučić and his regime are fundamentally destroying the beginnings of democracy in Serbia," Reljić told DW.

On the other hand, Selakovic believes that the EU is still motivated to keep Serbia within its gravitational field.

"Otherwise, Serbia would be left navigating a kind of Turkish scenario and would actually be a much greater risk to the European Union than if it remained in the package where some minimal progress is recognized and where the EU's strategic interests are secured," she concluded./DW