The Formula 1 World Championship returns this weekend in Zandvoort, with more than half of the season still to go. Twelve more races are scheduled on the calendar, including the final two in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, but almost no one believes that the title fight will remain open until the end. Kimi Antonelli leads the championship by 50 points over Lewis Hamilton and 59 over George Russell.

The question now is whether the Italian will manage to win the World Championship and become the first driver to do so since Alberto Ascari in 1953, or whether Hamilton and Russell will be able to catch him in the remaining races. What happened in 2025, when Oscar Piastri led after the first 11 races and then finished in third place, shows that the reversal is possible.

The second half of the championship will increase the pressure. Russell is unlikely to face as many problems as in the first half of the season, while Ferrari has planned some significant improvements for the SF-26. The most important is expected to be the second evolution of the ADUO engine, planned for Monza, which could significantly change the balance of power. Hamilton is coming with better pace

We only need to look at the performance of the last five races. In this partial classification, as of the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix, Hamilton would be the leader with 79 points, 16 more than Antonelli. However, it must be taken into account that this also coincides with the worst period of the Italian's reliability. Antonelli had an engine failure in Barcelona, ​​when he was in position for the podium, and another at Silverstone, where he finished sixth, although he was still in good positions.

The driver from Bologna's consistency in the races he has completed is impressive and Luis, at the pace he is currently showing, would not be able to catch Antonelli by the end of the season. Only a significant drop in his driving and self-confidence, similar to what Piastri suffered, could bring about a reversal that few would now predict. Mercedes expects improvements It is true that in the last stage of the World Championship, Kimi has been passed by four rivals in the points standings, with Leclerc having the same number of points.

But this is also his weakest period of the season. Mercedes will introduce new improvements, including a significant aerodynamic jump, the last major update was in Canada, which could allow the team to maintain its advantage in the final part of the season. Russell, whose confidence has been significantly shaken by Antonelli's performances this season, could also have his chances.

But that would require a comeback similar to that of Max Verstappen in 2025, when the Dutchman fought for the title until the end and lost it by only two points. It cannot be ruled out, but George does not seem to be able to imitate Max for so many races without making a single mistake. Moreover, the pressure on him is greater than that on the current championship leader.