The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the start of a new El Niño cycle, while experts estimate that there is about a 63% chance that the phenomenon will turn into a "Super El Niño", one of the strongest events recorded since 1950.
According to forecasts, El Niño could last until early 2027, significantly affecting climate patterns and increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many regions of the world.
El Niño is part of the climate phenomenon known as ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), which also includes the opposite phase called La Niña.
The phenomenon is related to changes in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, where unusual warming of the waters signals the presence of El Niño.
Although El Niño does not directly cause storms, floods, or droughts, it creates atmospheric conditions that favor the more frequent and intense occurrence of extreme weather phenomena. These can include large forest fires, long periods of drought, heavy rainfall, flooding, and hurricanes.
Its impact varies from region to region. According to climate analysis, parts of South America, particularly the Amazon basin, could face drier-than-usual conditions, while Mexico and the southern United States could experience more rainfall.
Scientists emphasize that El Niño is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change. However, global warming can amplify its effects, making heat waves, droughts, and extreme rainfall even more intense.
The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, Celeste Saulo, warned that a strong El Niño could worsen droughts and intense rainfall, while increasing the risk of heat waves on both land and oceans.
Experts warn that the coming years could be among the hottest ever recorded, with El Niño expected to play a significant role in accelerating the effects of extreme weather on a global scale.
