The Presidency and Government of Serbia have not responded to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Balkan Service about what conditions the United States has set for the country to launch the Strategic Dialogue between the two countries.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić mentioned two "formal requests" after his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, he did not provide details. It is only known that they will be considered at an extraordinary session of the Government on January 24.

Even the US State Department, until the publication of the text, has not responded to REL's questions regarding the requests addressed to Belgrade.

Mijat Kostić, a researcher at the non-governmental organization "New Third Way" in Belgrade, estimates that American conditions can be "extracted" from documents that the administration of US President Donald Trump has approved in recent months.

"The long-term interest and orientation of the US is to curb Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Balkans and Serbia," he adds.

What are the US interests in Serbia?

Reducing the Western Balkans' energy dependence on Russia is included among the goals of the National Defense Authorization Act, passed in December. The Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) was sanctioned by the US months ago due to its majority Russian ownership.

Serbian authorities are now hoping for the lifting of sanctions, after an agreement was reached to sell Russian sanctions on NIS to the Hungarian company MOL.

However, Serbia continues to be dependent on gas imports from Russia, which is the main supplier to the Serbian market.

"The US will likely seek long-term diversification, namely long-term independence from Russia, both energy and political," emphasizes Mijat Kostić.

Serbia has continued close cooperation with Russia, despite calls to impose sanctions on the Kremlin over its invasion of Ukraine.

While announcing a strategic dialogue with Washington, Belgrade also develops close relations with America's rival, China, and describes them as "iron friendship."

"Zijin operates in the mining sector, there is also the Linglong factory, these companies have a large footprint in the Serbian economy. Another American demand could be to reduce China's influence," adds Kostić.

The beginning of the dialogue, which the US is conducting with dozens of countries around the world to deepen cooperation, had been announced since August 2025.

But, he hasn't started.

The President of Serbia, from Davos, where he attended the World Economic Forum, stated that he "believes" that Belgrade will meet Washington's demands and "finally start" talks.

He also hopes that Serbia will achieve "the most favorable position possible" in the international environment, assessing that the rift between the US and the European Union will deepen.

He also stressed that he is not giving up on his "traditional friends" - Russia and China. "I am convinced that a page of history has been completed and that from tomorrow it will be written differently," Vučić declared on January 21.

With this, he referred to the US president's speech in Davos and the dispute between the US and the EU over control of Greenland. For Mijat Kostic, Vučić's assessments are "premature".

"Because the fact is that neither America nor the EU wants to completely break up the transatlantic partnership, especially when it comes to NATO. Even this situation over Greenland failed to destroy the alliance. The story of a complete breakup may be enjoyed by other actors, such as China and Russia, but it is very unlikely that this will happen," he adds.

In addition to meeting with the US Secretary of State, Vučić also met with EU representatives in Davos.

European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, stated after the meeting that she had discussed reforms with Vučić so that Serbia "remains strong on its European path."

On the social network X, the US president's envoy, Richard Grenell, who is considered close to the authorities in Belgrade, responded to her. He said that Vučić should follow "the American path, not the European one." The Serbian president also had a comment on this.

"I had a good conversation with Marta Kosi. If new alternatives are imposed - the American economy is faster, it grows more strongly," he declared.

American Johns Hopkins University professor Daniel Server estimates for REL that Vučić "can likely continue" the policy of "sitting in several chairs": this time also between the European Union and the United States.

"The European Union seems incapable of taking a tough stance towards Serbia," he adds.

Kostic, however, believes that Brussels and Washington do not have conflicting interests in the Western Balkans. He recalls that the National Defense Authorization Act, adopted by the current Congress, explicitly mentions concern about the state of democracy, the rule of law, and electoral conditions in Serbia.

All of these are criticisms that Brussels has directed at the authorities in Belgrade.

"Despite all of Trump's harsh rhetoric towards Europe, there is still a strategic unity between the EU and the US when it comes to the approach to the Western Balkans," Kostic assesses.

Why is Serbia not part of the Gaza Peace Board?

The Serbian President has not received an invitation from Trump to join the Gaza Peace Board with other world leaders in Davos. The Serbian Presidency has not responded to REL on how Belgrade is reacting to the lack of an invitation.

Vucic, however, stated from Davos that he is "not entirely sure" what Trump's international initiative means and that it has further divided Europe. Russia and China received an invitation from Trump but have not responded to it.

Even most European Union member states did not accept the American president's invitation.

But invitations were also extended to several Western Balkan countries, including Albania and Kosovo. Both countries accepted to join the Board, while Kosovo's President Vjosa Osmani was among the 19 world leaders who signed the founding act in Davos on January 22.

That the alliance with America is the "only way" for Kosovo, Osmani declared on social media, along with a photo with Trump from Davos. Kosovo has been trying in recent months to improve relations with the US administration and enable the launch of the Strategic Dialogue, which was temporarily suspended in the fall of 2025.

The suspension came after Washington expressed concern over the actions of the Kosovo government – ​​mainly due to efforts to extend power to the Serb-majority north, without coordination with the international community.

"For the Trump administration, it is important that there are no additional tensions and conflicts in the Balkans, so essentially their request would be for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina to continue without unpredictable moments," Kostić considers.

Kosovo as a point of contention between Belgrade and Washington

Immediate progress in the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo has also been defined as one of the goals of the National Defense Authorization Act, which Trump signed on December 19.

The US, it is said, should support reaching a final agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, which will be based on mutual recognition.

Professor Daniel Server emphasizes that precisely the stance towards Kosovo could be one of the obstacles to the strategic dialogue between Belgrade and Washington.

"Vučić opposes the sovereignty and independence of Kosovo. Washington recognizes Kosovo and should expect its strategic partners to do the same," Server adds.

Meanwhile, due to tensions between Belgrade and Pristina, the dialogue under the mediation of the European Union has stalled in recent years.

The attempt to resolve the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo was also seen in Trump's first term through the signing of the Washington Agreement. The agreement, which focused on establishing economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, was almost never implemented.

Over the past year, after returning to the White House, Trump has stated several times that he "prevented a war" that Serbia was preparing against Kosovo.

He last mentioned this at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Official Belgrade did not react to these statements by Trump.

However, statements by Kosovo officials confirming Trump's claims were called "false accusations" by authorities in Serbia.

What are the relations between Serbia and the US since Trump's arrival?

If it were to enter into a dispute with the Trump administration, Serbia, like other countries, could face tariffs, criticism, and isolation, Server emphasizes.

"I don't think the US is really that important to Vucic, who is more interested in convincing Jared Kushner to build something than in strategic dialogue with the US government. But, of course, these two things could be related," he adds.

The son-in-law of the American president was announced as an investor in a luxury residential-business complex on the site of the General Staff buildings in central Belgrade, which were severely damaged during NATO bombing in 1999.

The project faced opposition from part of the public and professionals, with massive protests and indictments for abuse against state officials who removed the General Staff's protection as a cultural monument.

Following the controversy surrounding the project, Kushner's company announced that it was withdrawing "out of respect for the citizens of Serbia and Belgrade."

Although US officials have been warning since the summer of 2025 that the Strategic Dialogue between Belgrade and Washington would be established "soon", the State Department has not specified the timing.

It was supposed, as representatives of the authorities on both sides described it, to bring a “new era” to relations – to revive political ties, expand cooperation in business and defense, as well as cooperation in the field of energy and communication technologies.

While they were promising to deepen relations, high customs tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports of goods from many countries also came into effect in early August. The 35 percent tariffs that the US imposed on goods from Serbia are the second highest among European countries, after Switzerland.

Representatives of the authorities in Belgrade emphasized, after the imposition of the tariffs, that they create major problems for attracting foreign investment. /RE/