The preliminary results of the June 7 snap parliamentary elections in Kosovo have created a familiar paradox: the numbers suggest opportunities for the formation of institutions, but the political reality warns of another potential impasse. While on paper there are sufficient combinations for a governing majority, in practice, deep polarization between parties calls into question its functionality, say political observers. According to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission, the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV) came first with 42.91% of the vote, followed by the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) with 21.08%, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) with 17.60%, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) with 7.17% and the Serbian List with 6.17%.

The numbers are there, the will is lacking.
Donika Emini, from the Balkan Policy Advisory Group in Europe, estimates that these results, under normal political circumstances, would create an almost ideal basis for governance.

"In a system where political compromise functions normally, this would be an ideal formula: a clear, but not dominant, winner who requires broader political cooperation. However, Kosovo is not in normal circumstances. After two years of institutional crisis and deep polarization, these results risk producing a stalemate again," Emini told Radio Free Europe.

Political scientist Dritëro Arifi is also in the same line. He emphasizes that the problem is not arithmetic, but political. “The problem is not that there are no numbers. The problem is political will. If there is a willingness to move forward, a solution can be found,” he says. According to him, much will depend on the LVV’s stance on whether it is ready to enter into coalitions. After the results were announced, the leader of this party, Albin Kurti, warned that he would communicate with all political entities, emphasizing the need for cooperation in the function of “public interest and general will.” “So, count on us, not only in the work we do, but also in the cooperation we will do,” Kurti said to his supporters.

The president's knot and difficult options
The June 7 elections came as a result of disagreements over the choice of a president, following the end of Vjosa Osmani's term. They were the third in less than a year and a half – following regular elections on February 9, 2025, and another early one on December 28.

The former failed to produce a government, while the latter, despite giving the Vetevendosje Movement over 51% of the votes – the largest majority in independent Kosovo – did not secure an agreement on the president, according to a ruling by the Constitutional Court. Osmani herself, who was the LDK candidate for this position in the June 7 elections, said that the Vetevendosje has no reason to reject her name for the post of president. “There are thousands of reasons to say ‘yes’, and all of them are in the interest of the state,” she declared. In this context, the issue of the president remains one of the main obstacles to any political agreement.

According to Emini, from the perspective of institutional stability, the strongest coalition would be between the LVV and one of the two main opposition parties – PDK or LDK. “In numerical terms, a coalition with PDK would be the strongest, but politically extremely difficult, due to the high level of polarization. A more natural option remains cooperation with LDK. Kurti himself, in the past, has left open the possibility of such a partnership,” says Emini, but emphasizes that the main node of this cooperation remains the election of the president.

The LDK sees this post as reserved for Osmani, but the LVV has not shown any willingness to support her, as she completed her first term in April. Arifi is also skeptical of an LVV-PDK coalition, but does not rule out the possibility of a broader agreement between Albanian parties, which would include the prime minister, the speaker of parliament and the president. “Logically, it will go towards who will have the prime minister. Meanwhile, the issue of the president will be used as an excuse to actually reach the post of prime minister. How will this be done? It will be very difficult,” he says.

Between compromise and new crisis
In this situation, according to analysts, Kosovo is facing two scenarios: a political agreement that ensures institutional stability, or a new cycle of blockades that could lead to new elections.

Emini considers compromise to be the most rational path, as it would guarantee not only the formation of a government, but also the election of a president and long-term stability. However, she warns that current political practices leave room for another crisis. “If the logic of the blockade prevails, a new election cycle cannot be ruled out. Although politically and financially costly, this remains a realistic scenario,” she says.

Even according to Arifi, a sustainable solution requires a comprehensive agreement. “… otherwise, the country risks being left without institutions and entering a long period of uncertainty,” he emphasizes.

Consequences beyond domestic politics
Failure to reach an agreement would not only produce an internal crisis, but also consequences on the international level. According to Emini, such a situation would damage Kosovo's strategic position and relations with key partners. "Kosovo risks being perceived as a secondary issue in the region, except in cases when it is related to security crises. At the same time, it would send a negative signal about the internal state capacity and would damage the integration processes with the EU," she estimates.

Arifi adds that the lack of functional institutions would bring stagnation in foreign policy. "Neither the US nor the EU cooperates with a country without institutional stability. Currently, unfortunately, we are in a counting place and this is a loss for the state and not for any particular political individual," he concludes. /REL