Only a small percentage of Ukrainian missiles and drones manage to penetrate Russian air defense systems, British magazine The Economist reveals in a recent analysis of the war in Ukraine.
According to the report, the success rate of Ukrainian air strikes ranges from 2% to 35%, depending on the type of weapon used. Weapons flying at speeds above 350 kilometers per hour are found to have the highest chance of penetrating Russian defenses.
Faced with these challenges, Ukraine is working on developing its own ballistic missiles, which would be more difficult to intercept. However, according to The Economist, even Ukrainian defense industry experts are skeptical that such a capability can be built in the short term.
The magazine also mentions Ukrainian startup Fire Point, which claims to be developing a new interceptor missile for air defense. However, industry sources say few believe the project will materialize anytime soon.
"Missiles are not drones"
The analysis highlights that the production of modern missiles is much more complex than that of drones, as it requires advanced engines, guidance systems, specialized electronics, and large investments for mass production.
Former deputy commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Andriy Ryzhenko, stated that Ukraine possesses a tradition in missile technology, but its development has lagged behind for decades.
"You can't produce shovels today and missiles tomorrow. Ukraine has a missile school, but our technology has been frozen for 40 years," he said.
Meanwhile, despite President Volodymyr Zelensky's statements that Ukraine is "very close" to launching a ballistic missile campaign against Russia, industry representatives are urging caution in their expectations. A source quoted by the magazine said that, in the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine could manage to create a missile built mainly from Western components.
At the same time, The Economist warns that Russia may intensify air strikes in the coming months. According to the report, from October, a central role in these attacks could be played by new Geranium drones, equipped with Chinese engines, which are expected to be significantly more difficult to neutralize by existing Ukrainian air defense systems.
