For the past few weeks, sailing through the Strait of Hormuz has been an extremely dangerous affair due to the risk of Iranian attacks, whether by missiles or mines. Now that the United States and Iran have suspended hostilities, the journey may be less dangerous, but it is no less politically and diplomatically difficult, especially as it is clear that Tehran is investing in forging new relations through the crisis. Two days after the fragile ceasefire began, the Strait has become Tehran’s most powerful card in its geopolitical showdown with President Donald Trump, and instead of fully opening the sea route to oil tankers and container ships, as it had promised, analysts say Iran still maintains a tight grip, giving priority only to a limited number of ships from countries that have trade relations with it or are not considered hostile.
This has put dozens of countries in a difficult position, forcing them to balance relations between Iran and the US, while Tehran continues to exploit its ability to influence global trade and energy flows in its own interests. It is no coincidence that one of the first Western ships to pass through the restrictions was a French ship owned by CMA CGM, and its safe passage came shortly after Emmanuel Macron’s criticism of Donald Trump. Other countries such as Turkey, Pakistan and India have secured passage for their ships thanks to their relations with Iran or their neutral stance, while Pakistan has even played a role in brokering the ceasefire and is expected to host high-level delegations for negotiations.
Meanwhile, traffic remains limited and Iran continues to exert pressure, stopping tankers in protest of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, and it remains unclear whether the ceasefire includes this front. Iranian officials have declared the Strait open, but have warned of the presence of mines and the need for coordination with the Iranian military, which has increased uncertainty in maritime markets. In parallel, pressure is growing for ships to use a corridor near Iranian territory, allowing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to inspect and potentially impose transit fees.
In negotiations with the Trump administration, Tehran aims to institutionalize this practice, proposing fees of up to $2 million for passage and using the proceeds for reconstruction, with a portion going to Oman. This idea has been opposed by European allies, including the United Kingdom, who insist on the principle of freedom of navigation, while Donald Trump has even suggested a form of joint control with Iran.
European countries, most dependent on Persian Gulf energy, are considering creating a coalition to secure the Strait, while countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar are expected to oppose any transit tariffs due to their dependence on exports. At the same time, Turkey is negotiating for its blocked ships, using diplomatic ties with Tehran, while India has resumed purchases of Iranian oil after several years, at a time when the US has temporarily eased sanctions to avoid shortages. With the new reality created in the Middle East, it is becoming clear that Iran has managed to strengthen its positions, using the crisis to increase its influence and negotiating power on other strategic issues, such as its nuclear program and ballistic missiles, while other countries are forced to seek special agreements with Tehran to secure their interests.
