“The oil should flow again,” said US President Donald Trump when he announced the deal with Iran. Although the details of the agreement have not yet been made public, Trump later explained that the Strait of Hormuz would be “fully reopened.”
The bilateral declaration of intent is expected to be signed this week in Geneva. There, the US and Iran wanted to resume direct negotiations.
The strait between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman is a key point for global energy supplies. Twenty percent of global oil consumption was transported through this waterway, which is up to 30 kilometers wide, before Iran completely blocked the shipping route with its armed speedboats and mines.
This was in retaliation for US and Israeli military actions in February. The airstrikes targeted military facilities in Iran and killed high-ranking politicians, including the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A fragile ceasefire has been in place for several weeks.
However, unconfirmed details of the statement of intent, published by pro-government Iranian media, reveal that Iran's future role in the Strait of Hormuz will remain a matter for negotiation.
The Iranian news agency FARS reported that 'Iranian-Omani sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz' was not included in the negotiations until the last moment. The US reportedly 'agreed' that shipping companies would pay 'fees' to Iran when their ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The US has again denied this account. US Vice President JD Vance told US broadcaster CNBC that the strait will remain open without tariffs in the long term. This is now something that "we will clarify in these technical negotiations".
The world is watching in utter amazement as the American superpower, despite its overwhelming military might and presence in the Gulf region, finds itself forced to negotiate with Iran only for a return to the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz, as it was before the war began.
Iran's ability to paralyze free maritime transit asymmetrically — that is, using drones, mines in shipping lanes, and small speedboats — calls into question the U.S. ability to guarantee freedom of navigation.
"This is a blow to the US as a global superpower and undermines its status as a guarantor of freedom of navigation. The war with Iran has left the US in a weaker position than it was at the beginning of the conflict," says Rebecca Lissner, senior fellow at the US think tank the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), in an interview with DW.
"While the war with Iran has highlighted the extraordinary military power of the United States, it has simultaneously revealed its inability to translate that power into anything approaching a strategic victory against Iran."
Of the many objectives that US President Donald Trump had mentioned at the beginning of the war, so far only one is considered achieved: the 'destruction' of the Iranian fleet. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Iran lost 'the majority of its naval forces' in less than ten days.
However, Iran did not need a conventional fleet to stop shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Its asymmetric drone attacks on energy facilities in other Gulf states prevented the US from escalating the conflict further, for example with a ground offensive.
Tehran's allies in Yemen and Lebanon – the Houthi militia and Hezbollah – continue to pose a threat to US allies in the region, such as Israel and others.
Now Europe wants to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to free passage. This was made clear on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Évian (France). Europe would be willing to help the US with its warships. US President Trump was not particularly impressed by the idea and told his host, French President Emmanuel Macron, on Monday (15 June 26) that the US did not 'need a lot of help'. He declared that 'it is not a bad idea to have one or two ships from Europe'.
