Who will be the new High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina? This question is dominating the agenda ahead of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meeting, to be held on June 3 and 4 in Sarajevo, where the choice of Christian Schmidt's successor will be considered.

However, the outcome of the meeting remains uncertain. The embassies of the United States, Great Britain, Germany and Italy in Bosnia did not respond to Radio Free Europe (RFE/RL)'s question about possible names for Schmidt's successor, their stance on the future of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) institution and the extent of its powers after almost three decades of international supervision of Bosnia.

What is known for sure is that, if no agreement is reached, Schmidt will officially remain in the post of high representative.

In May, Schmidt announced his retirement from the post he has held for five years, but said he would only step down once his successor was appointed, “due to the need to maintain institutional continuity,” especially ahead of Bosnia’s general elections, scheduled for October.

What is happening before the PIC meeting?
The British Minister for Europe, North America and Overseas Territories, Stephen Doughty, arrived in Sarajevo on June 1, while the French and German Ministers for Europe, Benjamin Haddad and Gunther Krichbaum, respectively, are expected to arrive on June 2, the day before the meeting.

According to the Bosnian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Doughty “reiterated the UK’s strong support for the full mandate and competences of the OHR,” while Haddad, before the visit, stated on the X platform that Europe “must not allow rival powers to intervene in our neighborhood to foment instability.”

A group of European states, led by Germany, France and the United Kingdom, wants to maintain the current model that allows the high representative to impose laws and dismiss elected officials in the event of political or institutional blockages or violations of the Dayton Peace Agreement.

At the same time, the administration in Washington supports the gradual reduction of the OHR's ​​interventionist role and greater reliance on local institutions and politicians.

The US representative to the UN, Tammy Bruce, stated on May 12 at a Security Council meeting that candidates for the new high representative will be evaluated "based on their achievements", emphasizing that "it is imperative that the new appointment is completed by the end of June".

What names are being mentioned?
Although the members of the PIC Steering Board have not officially announced the candidates, several names from Italy, France, and the United Kingdom are being mentioned in diplomatic and political circles.

Among the most mentioned candidates is Antonio Zanardi Landi, the 76-year-old Italian diplomat, who has served as Italy's ambassador to Russia, as well as to Serbia and Montenegro.

"Antonio Landi is officially the candidate of the Italian Government and our institutions are informed about this. He has the support of the US and not only them," Bosnia's ambassador to the UN told TV Sarajevo.

However, the ambassador added that “there are other candidates supported by a larger number of states.” One of them is Rene Troccaz, currently France’s special envoy for the Western Balkans.

In British circles, Karen Pierce, former ambassador to the US and currently special envoy for the Western Balkans, as well as Stuart Peach, her predecessor and former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, are also mentioned as potential candidates.

American representatives stated on May 12 at the UN Security Council that Washington also has its own candidates, but is ready to support a European candidate if consensus is reached within the PIC.

Who runs the OHR?
Although the PIC will formally decide on the new high representative, equally important is the question of what mandate Schmidt's potential successor will have, and how much scope he will have to use the so-called "Bonn powers" to impose laws and dismiss officials.

In the last two debates on Bosnia in the UN Security Council, US officials have supported the gradual limitation of the executive powers of the future high representative and the transformation of the OHR from an interventionist institution to a mediator that would leave responsibility to local institutions.

Such an approach would represent a departure from the model followed during the Schmidt and Paddy Ashdown mandates, when the OHR made extensive use of Bonn's powers for binding decisions, and would be closer to the 12-year period of Valentin Inzko.

Schmidt stressed in April that “the time has come for a new beginning for Bosnia.” His decision is linked to the possibility of a change in the approach of the US administration, which favors limiting executive powers and strengthening local institutions, while the UK, Germany and France hold the opposite position.

The PIC's task is to "provide political guidance to the High Representative," which means that members must agree not only on the name of the new head of the OHR, but also on the future role of this institution.

The PIC consists of the US, the EU, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Japan, Russia and Turkey, which represents the interests of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, along with several other countries.

Russia suspended its participation in the PIC's work in early 2022 and has been calling for the closure of the OHR for years. This stance is in line with the demands of the authorities of the Republika Srpska entity, which are often supported by China in UN Security Council debates.

Meanwhile, the Western members of the PIC continue to insist on fulfilling the conditions of the “5+2 Program” before the closure of the OHR. The outstanding issues include the division of state and military property, as well as a “positive assessment of the political situation.”

The European Commission, in its opinion on Bosnia's EU membership, has emphasized that the country cannot become a member of the European Union as long as an international protectorate exists in its current form.

What is the legacy of the OHR?
Since the establishment of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) at the end of 1995, on the basis of the Dayton Peace Agreement, the office of high representative in Bosnia has been held by eight European diplomats.

All of their first deputies have been Americans.
High representatives have imposed changes to around 300 articles of state and entity laws and constitutions, while by 2006 they had dismissed more than 400 elected officials – from mayors and police commanders to members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina – banning them from political activity.

These bans were later repealed, but not the laws imposed, including those that stipulate that the decisions of the high representative cannot be reviewed by the courts and that their failure to implement them constitutes a criminal offense./REL