The Western consensus on the future of the Western Balkan countries is disintegrating, while the US and the EU are openly pursuing contradictory policies in the region.

Donald Trump vs. Europe isn't just about Greenland and NATO. There's another contest taking place much more quietly: in the Balkans.

The region was devastated by the wars of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s. In the past, the US and Europe cooperated to rebuild the region. Today, they compete for power, money, and influence.

How could this rivalry affect the Balkans? 

The Western Balkans is a term that the European Union uses for the six countries on its borders: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania and Montenegro.

The EU says all of these countries should become members, following a series of rule of law and market reforms. But they have stalled on their path to membership. And there are some major obstacles, like the separatism that is simmering in Bosnia and Herzegovina, or the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo.

For years, the US has supported the integration of the Western Balkans into the EU. Former Democratic Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that “we are united in our goals to see you in NATO and the EU as soon as possible.”

A new message is currently being heard: Donald Trump Jr.: “It’s not politically correct, but it’s very clear that Europe is a disaster.”

This change of course has two sides: security interests and economic interests. Regarding security, the US State Department recently announced that “the era of US-led nation-building is over.”

But what does this mean?

Let's analyze Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Bosnia for short, a country marked by the brutal war of the 1990s. It is home to three main ethnic groups: Bosniaks, Bosnian Serbs, and Bosnian Croats.

To end their conflicts, a power-sharing system was established in 1995 under US leadership. It is often described as the most complicated political system in the world. Now, the US and Europe are at odds over the most powerful position in that system: the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina. He has a unique role. He is a foreign official, usually European, with great powers to intervene in Bosnian politics. His job is to make sure the country does not slide back into conflict. But he is elected by other states and organizations, not by the Bosnian people.

The last High Representative was German politician Christian Schmidt. He resigned and said the US pressured him into making the decision.

The Trump administration wants to limit the powers of the High Representative, but the EU still wants a diplomat to have the final say in Bosnia.

According to Marko Prelec of the International Crisis Group, “the US position on this issue is correct.” Expert Prelec further explains that 30 years after the cessation of hostilities, it is very difficult to explain why there should be an internationally appointed official with the degree of power that the senior representatives have exercised in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The office of the High Representative has long been part of the geopolitical competition in Europe. Russia was against the last High Representative, and so was their local ally Milorad Dodik, the Bosnian Serb leader. Dodik threatened to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina and unite the Bosnian Serb territories with neighboring Serbia: “We do not hide that we belong to a single Serbian nation. You will not destroy the call of this nation to unite. This nation deserves to have a united state. We cannot stop on this path.

America and Europe once cooperated against these threats. Dodik was even sanctioned by the US and targeted by Bosnian courts. But he escaped arrest, stood by MAGA, and celebrated Trump's victory.

Dodik calmed the situation and resigned from the government, but remains the de facto leader of Bosnian Serbs. In return, the Trump administration removed him from the sanctions list. The US says it will engage all local actors for more stability. But in the EU, there is concern that this could encourage Dodik to try to change the borders.

Balkan protagonists could take an example from the way the war in Ukraine is being waged, worries Marko Prelec from the International Crisis Group: "What worries me is if there is some kind of conclusion to the war in which the Western powers recognize the territorial change achieved by force in Ukraine, that there will definitely be actors in the Balkans who will say, what about us? 'We would also like to change our borders.'"

Serbia would argue this in relation to Kosovo, to its north, and the Bosnian Serbs would say, "we would like to secede too."

So there are a lot of things at stake in terms of security. But the US says that the main focus in the region right now is the economy.

This is closely related to the transport of liquefied natural gas: A floating LNG terminal is anchored near a Croatian island.

From there, the US wants to export gas to the Western Balkan countries, which have so far been supplied mainly by Russia. They have a bold proposal. Chris Wright, the US Secretary of Energy, calls these terminals Trump's "peace pipelines". This means that President Trump loves energy. A kind of peace through trade.

New trade ties are certainly welcome in the Balkans, where foreign investment is sorely needed. But there is a caveat, according to Marko Prelec of the International Crisis Group: “Where things get complicated and I think they are quite damaging for the region and for transatlantic relations is that the Trump administration in its second term, the second administration, is openly favoring some very shady firms, American firms that have various connections to President Trump and his family. So it looks like a kind of corruption.”

One currently stalled investment in Bosnia, a planned line called the “Southern Connector,” is supposed to transport liquefied gas from that Croatian terminal through Bosnia and into Serbia. This project was stalled for years. But with new American interest, things started moving surprisingly quickly. A special law was drafted, awarding the project without a tender to an American company with no previous experience in gas trading.

The company is run by Trump's former lawyer and the brother of his former adviser. Ivana Korajlic of Transparency International says we are in an absurd reality. "The US was once the main promoter of democratic values ​​throughout the region.

Ivana Korajlic leads Transparency International's work in Bosnia and Herzegovina, she says, "we no longer see any kind of pretense of respecting the rule of law, respecting local institutions."

Expert Marko Prelec notes that “it is particularly offensive to a European Union that builds much of its identity on clean accounting practices, the rule of law, fair trade, a level playing field.”

The EU has long been working to integrate the Western Balkan countries into its energy market, even though they are not yet members of the bloc.

It has also warned Bosnia that it risks losing support if it does not respect common market rules. There is additional scrutiny of other US energy deals in the region: in Macedonia, Albania and Serbia.

In Serbia, the tender for a new hydropower plant stated that only American firms could apply. So you can imagine that Europe was not pleased. Europe still lags America in investment in the Western Balkans: more than half comes from the EU and less than 3% from the US.

Credibility eroded in EU's promise of membership

So what is the Bloc doing to limit the influence of people in the Trump “orbit”? Ivana Korajlic underlines that “unfortunately, we do not see a strong enough response from the EU when it comes to this. The response should be much faster.”

While Marko Prelec from the International Crisis Group, emphasizes, that "the EU does not do big projects, very big, for whatever reason, in the Western Balkans. There is nothing major that they can show. When the US says we are going to come with this investment of 2 billion dollars, this is something major that everyone hears.

The EU's greatest lure for influencing the Western Balkans is the prospect of membership in the bloc in exchange for reforms. But the credibility of this promise is fading.

Marko Prelec: “People in the Western Balkans have been hearing about European integration for decades. No one has been admitted in 13 years since Croatia in 2013. So you have to try to convince people again that this will happen.”

The EU could do this soon, as Montenegro is completing accession talks and wants to join in 2028.

France and Germany are now also calling for a more flexible approach, to keep countries motivated and the EU's influence secure. The idea is to give candidate countries early access to EU programs and markets before full membership.

Such proposals are put forward every few years, but the biggest crises continue to attract the most attention in Brussels. Now it is the growing influence of the US that could force the EU to take a real step in the Balkans.

So, in a way, more interest and investment could be good news for the Western Balkans. But some in the region worry that a US-EU clash could fuel instability. Especially if Washington stops prioritizing democracy and focuses on short-term deals.

30 years after the wars, the division between America and Europe looks set to sow more division in the Western Balkans. /DW/