From Genc Burimi

Aleksandar Vučić resisted in vain for almost two years since the outbreak of the Serbian youth protest. On October 25, 2026, there will be early legislative elections in this country. The first lesson is for Edi Rama. No matter how much he resists, the end will be inevitable. Albania has also taken the path to early elections, as it is difficult to imagine, under the conditions of today's protests, that this parliament will continue for another three years until the next elections in the summer of 2029. Vučić resisted during the protest, as Edi Rama is trying to do, but the Serb was checkmated and agreed to hold early elections when the EU turned off the tap of money with which public investments in Serbia are currently maintained.
In May of this year, the European Commission announced the freezing of one and a half billion euros in grants and loans foreseen for Serbia for the period until 2027. This amount was part of the general fund for the Western Balkans of 6 billion euros, where the share for the government of Edi Rama weighs almost one billion euros until the end of 2027. The immediate consequence of Brussels' "economic embargo" on Serbia was the loss of the first tranche of European aid this summer, with more than 100 million euros that the budget of the State of Vučić would not receive. Vučić thus found himself caught between two fires this summer: the student protests in the streets that did not cease, and on the other hand, the Serbian state budget that was starting to feel the lack of millions of European euros, which could lead Serbia into a deep economic crisis before 2027, when regular elections would be held. By announcing the date of early elections, the Serbian president reduces the tension on the street by responding to the demand for elections and, at the same time, sends a signal to Brussels that he surrenders, in the hope that European economic aid to Serbia will continue. Of course, Europe will see if the elections will be fair before opening the bag again.
But this Serbian example is a warning to Edi Rama, who chose in recent days to make the same blunder that Vučić made with Europe a few months ago, when the overconfident Serbian president was showing his teeth. Rama treated the deputies of the second largest group in the European Parliament, which also includes the SPD, part of the German governing coalition, as "lazy". It is a bravery that risks paying a high price. Because if Brussels decides to one day put pressure on Rama for early elections, Europe will have it even easier than with Vučić. This is not only because the 1 billion euros in aid for Albania are more vital for Rama with an economy weaker than the Serbian one, but because unlike the Serbian justice, the Albanian one is seen as a partner of the West. And the countless accusations of corruption against Rama's government are not lacking... Pressure on the streets, financial pressure, legal pressure, both for Vučić yesterday and for Rama today, the question is no longer "will there be early elections", but "when will the date for their holding be set".

The Electoral Code Trap: why does the Serbian model protect the anonymity of protesters, while Albanian law exposes them?

That said, there is no guarantee that the protesters' cause will triumph with the early elections they are demanding. In Serbia, the power maneuvers have already begun. Vučić could play Putin's game: once president, once prime minister. But even Serbian protesters are managing to take advantage of the opportunities given to them by the Serbian electoral code, opportunities that protesters in Albania do not have at all in the event of early elections.
In Serbia, to date, student protesters have not created any official party or movement to participate in the elections. This is for two reasons. The first is tactical, as a strategy to maintain anonymity. In Serbia, you are not obliged to create a party and announce lists before there is an official election date. This flexible status allows Serbian students to keep their organizational chart and list of candidates secret until the last moment to avoid pressure and intimidation from the authorities. If they were to create a traditional party long before the elections, Serbian protesters would be obliged to declare the founders, statutes and official leaders in public registers, immediately exposing themselves to pressure, blackmail and attempts by the authorities to divide them. The Serbian Election Commission (RIK) foresees that, in addition to registered political parties and coalitions, a “group of citizens” may well run in the elections with a full list, without any mandatory prior registration. The only condition is the collection of at least 10.000 signatures which are officially certified by a court or notary without depending on the Central Election Commission.
In Albania, this is impossible. According to the Albanian Electoral Code, a group of citizens cannot present a party list. Citizens can only propose individual independent candidates, one per electoral district, that is, 12 in total (with a maximum of 3.000 signatures per district). Not only are there very few candidates, but the Albanian trap is that the names of the initiating committee must be registered with the Central Election Commission (CEC) long before the election date, precisely at least 70 days in advance. So, if Rama were to announce snap elections, the protesters would not be able to register a nationwide list of their own. If they start creating parties now, the protesters would fall into the trap that their colleagues in Serbia avoided: the government would have their names, addresses and structures, using them for blackmail or to divide them ahead of time.

The role of opposition political parties

There is a second characteristic of the elections that will now be held in Serbia, which differs from Albania. In the 250-seat Serbian Parliament, in which Vučić's party has an absolute majority, there are a number of opposition parties with a total of about 74 seats. Almost half of these opposition parties (mainly the smaller ones and civic movements, representing about 32 deputies) have decided not to enter the elections on October 25. These opposition parties are making this "sacrifice" to give the protesting Student List as many chances as possible to win and so that the opposition votes are not dispersed. Otherwise, the Vučić government would once again benefit from the division. However, the largest blocs of the Serbian parliamentary opposition (such as the SSP and NPS) have decided to participate with their own lists, arguing that it would not make sense for the future Serbian parliament to have only two political colors, that of the Student List and that of Vučić's coalition. The same argument will be made in Albania by the Democratic Party as the largest opposition.

In conclusion, the perspective in Albania could not be much different from that in Serbia if the international community decides that early elections are necessary to get out of the political crisis. Europe managed to impose a technical government with a constitution in North Macedonia, it managed to impose early elections in Serbia in exchange for a check of millions of euros, why would Rama resist? As analyzed, even if the ruling leader rejects these elections, the Westerners have enough pressure tools to “convince” him. But on the other hand, if early elections are held, the protesters in Albania have fewer legal chances to participate as a separate list than their colleagues in Serbia. The only chance for the protesters or new movements in Albania would be for the reform of the electoral code under discussion to be voted on as soon as possible, but by providing in advance in it, the same ease that a “citizens’ group” has in Serbia. In Albania, too, participation in the elections should be allowed without being forced to register months in advance. If protesters in Albania have the opportunity to register their list(s) at the moment the election campaign officially opens, they could create a lightning and fatal surprise for Edi Rama's government, thanks also to the post-election coalitions that could be created...