Although it is doubtful that anyone in Putin's circle is actually plotting a conspiracy, the fact is that Putin has drastically increased his security measures. What is happening in Russia?
Information is circulating in European intelligence services that certain circles of the Russian elite may be preparing a conspiracy against Vladimir Putin. Of particular interest is the role of Putin's former defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, whose former closest associates are systematically imprisoned by the Putin regime.
Despite these speculations, the Kremlin has drastically increased security measures around President Vladimir Putin due to the possibility of assassination and a coup. This information from a European secret service was reported by the Russian investigative portal Important Stories, as well as by CNN and the Financial Times.
But analysts have different opinions about this information: some believe that such a scenario is always possible in Russia, where there are countless examples of conspiracies against rulers from the history of that country. Also, the Ukrainian Secret Service carries out successful operations inside and outside Russia. Others warn that preparations for the conspiracy are not being reported by the media: this could easily be Putin's double game and the reason for another purge within the Russian elite. There are also countless examples of this in the history of Russia.
But what everyone agrees on is this: Putin is worried about his own security. Tensions within the elite are also rising, partly due to economic problems and pressure from security services on technocrats.
What is Shoigu's role?
The intelligence report specifically mentions former Russian Minister of Emergency Situations and Defense, and current Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Sergei Shoigu, as a "potentially destabilizing factor."
His influence is certainly on the wane, but he could still pose a potential threat to Putin’s regime, according to Roman Anin of Important Stories, an independent Russian investigative media outlet based in Riga. He notes “growing tensions between the security services” in Russia, and “clashes of clans” are also evident. The ruler in Russia traditionally pursues a policy of “divide and rule,” but Putin’s role as a mediator is currently significantly weaker.
"For years, Shoigu was the leader of an extremely powerful clan. As Minister of Defense and head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, he managed to gather a large number of people under his command and involve them in a network of corruption. It's essentially something like a mafia omerta," Anin explains to DW.
In prison one after another...
Shoigu and Putin are old personal friends: they spent holidays together, there are photos of them fishing and picking mushrooms together. Putin initially appointed his friend as emergencies minister. He held that position for 12 years, and in 2012, Putin appointed this civil engineer with no military career as defense minister. But in the midst of the war against Ukraine, Putin dismissed him in 2024 and appointed Andrei Belousov in his place.
The first interpretation of this dismissal was the chronic military failure of the war against Ukraine, but apparently there were more reasons. Because a number of his deputies are already in prison, Shoigu must fear that the same fate could befall him, says Anin.
The pursuit of accomplices continues: in March, former Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Talikov was arrested and charged with “establishing a criminal organization” that was guilty of embezzling money from the budget in the period from 2017 to 2024, and they are also accused of corruption.
Timur Ivanov, arrested in 2024, was sentenced to 13 years in prison in a similar case. Pavel Popov was 19 years old. Criminal proceedings against Dmitry Bulgakov, also a former deputy of Shoigu, are still ongoing.
Even Putin isn't sure.
It has long been completely impossible for anyone to approach Putin armed, but Putin still cannot be completely safe from a possible assassination, for example by a drone. This April, the anonymous Russian channel on the Telegram network VČK-OGPU reported that the Kremlin fears a possible threat related to internal events. It also mentions possible drone attacks from Moscow itself, and not from afar.
A big problem was also the traditional military parade on Red Square on the occasion of Victory Day in World War II. Russian secret services advised that this year it be canceled altogether, and even Putin was inclined to this decision. In the end, it took place, but on a much smaller scale.
And so security measures in Moscow are being tightened: communication links have been cut in several districts, mobile electronic warfare systems are being deployed in the city center, and there is even stricter surveillance in the Kremlin itself.
Political scientist Ekaterina Shulman also claims on social media that the smaller parade is a result of fear of assassination, and also points out that Putin has reduced the number of public appearances: “If security is an absolute priority, the safest thing is not to appear anywhere.”
Political scientist Abbas Galyamov, in an interview with DW, recalls a whole series of successful assassinations of Russian generals - which are attributed to Ukrainians, so Putin can no longer feel safe: "For Putin, security is therefore more important than image."
The clans are waiting, but Shoigu is weak...
Galyamov notes that conflicts are growing within the Russian security services and various clans at the top of Russia, apparently some clans are acting more and more independently and the Kremlin's influence and mediation is no longer evident.
In his opinion, the elites are currently avoiding open conflict and prefer to wait for events to develop in order to adapt to the changed circumstances. But he is skeptical of Shoigu's role: he considers him a weakened person without the necessary resources and support.
And Ekaterina Shulman notes that what the Financial Times and CNN are reporting is not some kind of “Shoigu-led conspiracy.”
British political scientist and Russia expert Mark Galeotti has a completely different opinion: he considers reports of the alleged conspiracy against Putin to be “conscious disinformation.”
In his opinion, they do not reflect a real threat. In a commentary for the British weekly The Spectator, he refers to a “sudden wave of information” that “looks suspiciously like a psychological operation.” Their purpose, he says, is to “stir up paranoia within the Russian elite,” rather than to provide a “serious assessment.” According to Galeotti, Sergei Shoigu does not have the authority and trust within the top government to be able to carry out a coup.
A complex network of influential groups
The ruling elites are not a single group with common interests, explains former employee of the Russian Central Bank Alexandra Prokopenko on the YouTube channel Carnegie Politics. That is why there have been no serious coup attempts so far. The exception was the rebellion of the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in June 2023.
He describes Putin’s system of governance as pyramids built around individual patrons, linked by the distribution of resources and access to decision-making processes. In such a model, there is no common center of coordination and therefore no prerequisite for collective action. As long as the representatives of that system get more from Putin than they could get without him, there is no incentive for open conflict, Prokopenko concludes.
This does not rule out the possibility of change if resources within the system begin to dwindle. Due to war and sanctions, this “pie” is already smaller and is distributed in favor of the military and related industries.
This increases competition between influential groups and undermines the stability of the existing coalition. At the same time, says Prokopenko, various groups within the system are trying to draw Putin's attention to their interests.
She describes it not as a fight to change the direction of politics, but primarily as a fight for access to resources and a place at the center of decision-making. According to her, the existing ambiguity of the rules suits Putin because it divides the elites, forces them to prove their loyalty and reminds them that property rights in Russia depend not on the law, but on the political will of the Kremlin./DW
