For more than two months, a new round of European Union sanctions against Russia has remained deadlocked on the political table.

Initially vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia over an unrelated dispute with Ukraine involving the Druzhba pipeline, and later challenged by the energy turmoil caused by the US war on Iran, the proposed sanctions, which include a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil tankers, are still awaiting a resolution.

But recent developments in Budapest and Washington have unexpectedly improved the odds, raising hopes in Brussels that the 20th package could be unblocked soon.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's crushing defeat last Sunday is expected to transform the balance of power, opening a window of opportunity to lift remaining vetoes on sanctions and a €90 billion loan for Ukraine.

While few officials and diplomats expect Orbán, a notorious disruptor, to break the deadlock before he leaves office in May, expectations are very high for his successor, Péter Magyar, who has promised to be a “constructive” voice at the table.

There is still a question mark over how Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, a close ideological ally of Orbán, might behave after the changing of the guard. Unlike Orbán, who has repeatedly tested the limits of EU norms, Fico prefers to engage in dialogue with other leaders to find a possible compromise to lift his veto.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Druzhba pipeline will be repaired “not completely, but enough to be functional” by the end of the month. The infrastructure was severely damaged in late January by Russian drones.

Orbán’s loss and the repair of Druzhba could together ease Fico’s opposition. The Slovak previously said he had no problem with the content of the sanctions themselves – only with the interruption of oil flows through Druzhba.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the administration will not offer Russia further sanctions relief, a measure introduced last month to deal with the shockwaves caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The 30-day permit, which expired over the weekend, allowed other countries to buy Russian oil that was already at sea.

"We will not renew the general license for Russian oil and we will not renew the general license for Iranian oil," Bessent said Wednesday at the White House.

The US decision to ease sanctions on Russia had angered Europeans, who saw it as a "unilateral", "wrong" and "self-destructive" move at a critical moment when Moscow was gaining windfall profits.

The price of Russian Urals crude has been above $110 a barrel, the highest level in more than a decade. As a result, Russia's revenues from crude and refined products rose sharply to $19 billion (€16 billion) in March compared with $9.7 billion (€8.2 billion) in February, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The injection has helped the Kremlin mitigate a trend of economic stagnation that left a deficit of $60 billion (50.9 billion euros) in the first quarter of 2026, far beyond forecasts.