As expected, French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote on September 8 in the National Assembly. The main critical issues that made him the first prime minister to seek a confidence vote himself, which have long been “heating the blood” there, are the extension of the retirement age from 60 to 64, the saving of 44 billion euros in the state budget by 2026 or the equivalent of 3 percent of GDP, and the removal of two of France’s 11 official holidays.
All analysts claim that there could not be a more difficult and challenging moment than this for France, the government, and especially President Macron, who is now considered a "lame goose" due to the collapse of his positions at the head of state.
And this at a time when French diplomacy and President Macron had become vocal protagonists for peace in Ukraine and the Middle East; just a few days ago Macron hosted the Summit dedicated to security guarantees for Ukraine. This serious crisis hit Paris on the eve of the opening of the new Session of the UN General Assembly and on the 80th anniversary of its creation. Moreover, when on September 22, France will co-chair there with Saudi Arabia a special Summit dedicated to the Middle East peace process and the recognition of the state of Palestine.
This new political earthquake has deeply shaken official Paris, as Bayrou was the second prime minister to fall in a year. Last December, Michel Barnier, considered President Macron's "life jacket", also suffered his fate; although a prominent Europeanist and former Chief Negotiator of BREXIT for the EU, Barnier turned out to be the shortest-lived prime minister in the last 80 years, without even passing the "100 honeymoon days".
Bayrou was appointed Prime Minister on December 13, 2024, as a well-known center-right personality, Chairman of the Democratic Movement (Modem). In addition to several previous ministers, his government included two well-known former prime ministers.
But, with the minority government, he failed in his goal of securing the support of the parliamentary majority for as long as possible. In fact, this was an extremely difficult challenge, if not impossible in the existing French parliamentary landscape. In addition, the leaders of other political forces have repeatedly accused President Macron of simply buying time, dragging out the political agony without sincere cooperation with them by appointing the man who has “held the wheel” for the last 7 years.
In fact, this is true. Over the past 9 months, Macron has aimed and done his best, taking advantage of successful actions abroad, to strengthen his positions, tire and weaken his political opponents, in the hope that he would improve his image at home, which has been severely damaged over the past 15 months; thus, he hoped to create a new, promising, if not winning, political dynamic until the next elections.
Now that France does not even have a minority government, given the extraordinary difficulties that will be encountered in creating a new government coalition in political, economic and financial circles in France and other European metropolises, anxiety, fear and uncertainty in many vital areas have rightly and significantly increased. This fear, uncertainty and uncertainty is understandable, since no major French party has the parliamentary majority as it did 4 years ago. Mathematically, this majority, even convincing, is held by the extreme left and right, but their unification is a political mission impossible. Unfortunately, neither Macron's centrists nor the Republicans, who once "made the law", have the numbers for this majority, due to last year's electoral "flaws".
That is why the only practical possibility for a new government coalition with a parliamentary majority remains an alliance between the Macronists and the United Left, of course with the corresponding concessions. This would be a salvation for France, it would also narrow the space of action for Le Pen's "National Rally", while creating relative stability in the government. Otherwise, any other minority government will be just as, or even shorter-lived than the one that fell on September 8.
The good and comforting news here is that despite this dire situation, when French external debt is the highest after Italy and Greece at 116 percent and the budget deficit is 5,8 percent of the 3 percent that is the EU limit, still, if reforms are implemented, there are possibilities for France to avoid a mega crisis and financial bankruptcy like Greece, Italy and Portugal in 2007-2010.
Because, as well-known experts claim, France is "holding on" for some time, since the situation there and in Europe is incomparable to the difficult years of 2007-2015. Thus, despite the major negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis, and the Russian aggression against Ukraine, France overcame them relatively better.
In recent years, France has been successful in attracting many foreign investors, has increased innovation and employment levels. As for the structural side, according to experts, France is much better than even Germany, the pioneer; this is because industry in France, unlike Germany, has a much smaller weight in the country's economy; and its dependence on fossil fuels and Russian energy is much smaller than in Germany.
The other and perhaps most important reason is the excellent state and performance of the institutions in France. They are able to implement the necessary reforms quickly and with the right quality, even though they are not yet being undertaken, but this is not due to the institutions' fault, but to the lack of a stable government with a parliamentary majority and without long-term crises.
The last but not least reason is that France and Europe today are much better prepared to face such debt and financial crises. They have reliable mechanisms for avoiding speculation and maintaining financial stability. In particular, the European Central Bank (ECB), after the famous speech on July 12, 2012 of its emblematic former director, Mario Draghi, “We shall do Whatever It Takes”, has significantly influenced the avoidance of speculative actions and the guarantee of financial stability.
As a result, so far investors and financial markets have been calm and confident that there will be no concerns about financing state debts.
BUT, with the various developments expected to occur after the fall of the Bayrou government, nothing can be ruled out, especially if measures are not taken to overcome the current governmental and political crisis as soon as possible.
To this end, three factors are crucial for France: resolving the political crisis as soon as possible, creating a stable government coalition with a convincing parliamentary majority, and approving the country's budget for 2026, so that the state deficit will gradually decrease. Second, regaining public confidence that the country will have development impulses with comprehensive reforms, offering hope and optimism.
Things change if there is a minority government again. In that case, early elections will hang over the new Prime Minister and President Macron like a “sword of Damocles” over their heads. Then, YES, France will seriously risk becoming ungovernable, which would provoke negative reactions in its entire institutional chain, in the country’s economy, in the debt crisis and consequently in all EU member states and beyond. Of course, in such a case, when it no longer finds any other buyer, then the European Central Bank (ECB) would intervene strongly, buying “Mali” with increased French debts. Although it would alleviate the situation for a moment, it would destroy France’s financial credibility, provoke an increase in shares in the foreign exchange markets, an increase in loan interest, as a result of inflation and market prices, with serious socio-economic consequences.
On the other hand, the people in France, who have enjoyed life with debts until now, would not want reforms and budget austerity, the only way out of this dangerous crossroads, but would continue to live by increasing their debts.
But this would have catastrophic consequences not only for France, but also for the entire EU, starting with neighboring Germany, which already has so many problems and difficulties. This is because there, as everywhere in Europe, the interest on the large loans that will be taken out in the context of increasing colossal spending on defense, infrastructure and social aspects would increase, further aggravating the crisis in Germany.
In general, the Franco-German dialogue, considered the irreplaceable "engine" of the EU that was barely "reignited" at the Franco-German Summit in Toulon on August 31, would be severely damaged. The continuation of this crisis would also have consequences for French aid to Ukraine and the peacemaking process there, due to possible budgetary constraints.
As a result, if this were to continue, within the next 10 years France would also go bankrupt, just like Greece did 10 years ago. Only the "domino" effects of France throughout Europe would be "on par" with those of Greece. Because we are talking about the political and financial tsunami that this megacrisis would cause in a country like France, with a population 6 times larger, with economic power but also debts 10 times larger than Greece!
These negative impacts would also be felt in the Western Balkans, where France & Germany are highly engaged with major thematic dossiers, such as the Berlin Process, the Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, EU membership, etc.
Given these vital factors, as a year ago and today, President Macron is determined neither to resign, nor to dissolve Parliament, nor to call early elections, which the opposition continues to insist on. Rightly so, since, as his predecessor, former President François Hollande, also stated at the beginning of the year, this would plunge the country into even greater chaos and crossroads, with unpredictable and irreparable consequences.
Along these lines, a few days ago, the prominent French writer Bernard Henri Levy also called the demand for his resignation anti-democratic and anti-republican. Therefore, as many experts and political scientists affirm, the best way out is the consensus of President Macron's "Renaissance" with the United Left; only it would ensure a convincing parliamentary majority, capable of carrying out bold reforms; only their implementation would be the real long-term savior for France and Europe.
not fall into the spiral of endless crises.
Now everyone has turned their attention to Paris on the new Prime Minister proposed by President Macron, Sebastien Lecornu, to see if he will manage to create a coalition government with a parliamentary majority; only in this way will the government be able to approve the 2026 budget, the most difficult challenge, and other major objectives, both domestically and internationally, starting with support for peace in Ukraine, etc.
However, this will also depend on the developments of the coming days/weeks and especially the massive protest on September 10, organized by the new social movement "The Essentials" a more moderate version of the "Yellow Vests". It is expected to paralyze all life in the country, with major new troubles and headaches for French politics and especially its leader, President Macron.
(BalkanWeb)
