On May 21, Montenegro celebrated two decades since the historic referendum that paved the way for its secession from the state union with Serbia.

The anniversary celebrations take place in an atmosphere created by the country's reputation as the "model student" of the Western Balkans in the EU accession process.

Over the past few years, Podgorica has managed to reactivate its stalled EU membership negotiations, accelerate reforms and position itself as the leading country in the region to join the EU, at a time when Brussels has renewed interest in accepting new members.

"It's easy to be the best student in a class with weak students," Daliborka Uljarevic from the Center for Civic Education in Podgorica told DW.

Her observation reflects the broader regional context. While much of the Western Balkans has remained stagnant, or even turned back, on its path to the European Union, Montenegro has managed to capitalize on the geopolitical momentum created by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the EU’s renewed focus on enlargement.

Referendum on independence

Montenegro declared independence from Serbia in 2006, after a highly contested and highly-voted referendum, in which 55.5% of voters supported leaving the union with Serbia.

For the next 14 years, the country was ruled by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), led by long-time leader Milo Djukanovic.

Over the years, Djukanovic's government faced repeated accusations of corruption and links between political elites and organized crime, while critics increasingly described Montenegro as a "captured state."

The DPS lost power in 2020 after months of mass protests and church-led rallies against a controversial law on religious property, which prompted the first democratic transfer of power since independence.

"Montenegro is one of the rare countries in the region that had sufficient democratic capacity to replace a man who had been in power for so long without major unrest," says Aleksandar Popov of the Center for Regionalism in Novi Sad, Serbia. "If we look at Serbia, this will be much more difficult to achieve," he added to DW.

The political scene in Montenegro continues to be dominated by the division between the pro-sovereignty and pro-Serb camps, which has shaped the country since independence.

One side emphasizes the distinct Montenegrin national identity and statehood, while the other side sees Montenegrins as part of the broader Serbian nation and favors close political, cultural, and religious ties with Serbia.

According to the most recent 2023 census, about 41% of citizens identify as Montenegrins and about 33% as Serbs — a balance that strongly influences elections and coalition policies.

Pro-Serbian parties are among the main political actors in the country and are often seen as the main channel through which Belgrade maintains influence in Montenegro's internal affairs. Officially, these two political camps have reached a consensus on Montenegro's goal of EU membership.

Unofficially, according to Aleksandar Popov, this balance remains fragile and susceptible to influence from Belgrade. “Pro-Serbian forces […] can always block the European path with a signal from Belgrade — and this is already happening,” Popov said.

"We loved you more than you loved us"

Relations with Serbia have remained one of the most sensitive political issues for Podgorica. This was clearly illustrated by the reaction of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to an invitation to participate in the celebrations of the anniversary of Montenegro's independence.

Vučić initially said that participating in the celebration would be like "spitting in the face of yourself and your people."

Later, he directly addressed Montenegrin citizens in an opinion piece: “You did not bother us. We saw you as sisters and brothers and wanted to live in the same state with you. I admit, we are guilty — forgive us for loving you more than you loved us,” Vučić wrote.

How Belgrade sees Montenegro

Both Uljarevic and Popov believe that Belgrade has never fully accepted Montenegro’s independence. According to Uljarevic, Serbia still treats Montenegro “as if it were a temporarily lost territory.”

Popov believes that for this reason, Belgrade will continue to do everything it can to slow down Montenegro's progress towards the EU. "Serbia does not want Montenegro to join the EU, because that would undermine Vučić's main argument that 'Europe does not love us'. If Montenegro joins the EU, it will become clear that the real problem lies elsewhere," Popov told DW.

He argues that EU membership would place Montenegro beyond Belgrade's sphere — politically, legally, and in terms of security — and remove it from Serbia's sphere of influence.

The same old problems

However, Uljarevic warns that behind Montenegro's positive image as a regional success story lie many of the same problems that have plagued the country since independence.

“Corruption is still everywhere,” she said. “Some would even say that it is more expensive now than before, because there are many more actors in power trying to satisfy party and personal interests,” she added. At the same time, she believes that Montenegro should use the current moment of EU integration as an opportunity for deeper institutional and social changes, and not just as a geopolitical shortcut to membership. “Our absolute interest is to become an EU member state as soon as possible, but it is equally important that the process is carried out properly and that we do not enter the union as a state with shortcomings,” she said./DW/