The latest US intelligence assessments show that the timeline it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, despite the escalation of tensions and recent conflict in the region.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to produce up to 10 nuclear bombs, if the material is further processed. However, the agency has not been able to verify the location of about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.
Experts point out that nuclear material may be hidden in deep underground facilities, which are difficult to hit by conventional arsenals.
"Iran still possesses all of its nuclear material, as far as we know," said former US analyst Eric Brewer.
Meanwhile, according to intelligence and IAEA assessments, Iran has suspended its active nuclear warhead development program since 2003, although its technical capabilities and infrastructure remain a continuing concern for the West.
US administration officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, argue that attacks on Iranian air defense systems have weakened the country's ability to protect its nuclear facilities in the event of a rapid arms race.
On the other hand, the White House has emphasized that military operations, including "Midnight Hammer" and "Epic Fury", have significantly damaged Iran's defense and industrial capabilities. Vice President JD Vance has also stated that the goal remains unchanged: preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
After a ceasefire reached on April 7, tensions between the parties remain high. The situation has been further complicated by Iran's restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a key point for global oil supplies, causing repercussions on international energy markets.
In this fragile climate, US officials are also considering other options, including ground operations to secure suspected nuclear materials in underground facilities, while the assassinations of several Iranian nuclear scientists by Israel have added to uncertainties about Tehran's ability to develop a functional weapon.
Experts warn that, although technical knowledge cannot be completely eliminated, the loss of key personnel could significantly affect the progress of the Iranian nuclear program.
