Nine months after the tragedy at the Novi Sad train station, which killed 16 people, the political crisis in Serbia is far from over. Protests are still ongoing, which is somewhat surprising given the high temperatures and summer holidays, but the pressure is still there.
Police actions intensified during the summer, repression increased. But judging by recent events, the police have been replaced by various private security forces, and it seems that the municipal police have been involved in the arrests.
A clever show or prosecution?
The beginning of August brought a political bombshell after the arrest of senior officials of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) for corruption and embezzlement of $115 million in the construction of the Novi Sad-Kelebija high-speed railway.
The public was left quite confused, and this action is seen either as a show directed by Aleksandar Vučić, or as a real step by the prosecution in cooperation with the European Union.
"Both theories show how much the Serbian state is not based on formalized institutions," Dejan Bursac, a research fellow at the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, told DW.
"If you analyze both of these solutions, you see that they sound crazy. In that context, both scenarios are dangerous for the SNS and Aleksandar Vučić, because both show that he does not really have control over the state. And this is something on which his image is based," says our interlocutor.
Panic – who's next?
Political scientist Duško Radosavljević believes that he is more inclined to the interpretation according to which the prosecution is finally acting independently, which is "also indicated by the hysterical reactions to the arrest and detention of suspects."
"Panic has set in, especially since this is the first level of arrests. Now a more serious amount of money is already being mentioned in this case. So far these have been relatively modest amounts of money. If we go further into the analysis, the question is how many more people will be arrested? The regime does not know who it could be. Let's say that it is also possible that the EU has given encouragement to start a fight against corruption," Radosavljevic draws attention.
Worsening of the crisis
The crisis within the ruling coalition has also worsened in recent days. Some tensions between the SNS and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) have been ongoing for some time, but this has now been compounded by harsh rhetoric directed at Bosniak parties in Sandzak, following the violent breaking of the blockade of the State University of Novi Pazar (DUNP).
Authorities have harshly attacked local party leaders for disloyalty, prompting the Sandzak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) to file criminal charges against the Speaker of Parliament, Ana Brnabić, for "inciting national, racial and religious hatred and intolerance."
This is not surprising after nine months of crisis, Dejan Bursaq points out. “If we had a functional party system, this would be the natural state, internal conflicts and factions would arise very quickly,” he says.
“If you have a government that no longer controls the country, there is bound to be discontent. But here, the parties function as some informal centers of power. And that is why the process is slower,” believes Bursac. The SNS sent “thugs” to Novi Pazar, a sensitive area, to clear out the university, assesses Dusko Radosavljevic. “Now an explosive atmosphere has been created there. And in that atmosphere, an experienced politician like Rasim Ljajic, or someone else, understands that the shirt is closer than his coat.”
Research as crisis management
All of these developments are somewhat covered by public opinion polls. The last two – the one by Sprint Insight and the New Serbian Political Thoughts – showed that a possible student list would have a clear advantage over the regime list. Although these are still theoretical choices, according to these polls, the students have at least ten percent more support than Vučić’s party. This was later “covered” by an Ipsos poll that does not see the students as a real option.
Dejan Bursaq believes that the later surveys were “crisis management of the Sprint Insight survey that gave an advantage to the students.” “It’s very strange that some agencies didn’t respond for nine months, and then many of them submitted their surveys within two weeks. I think the problem for SNS certainly exists, because you have a practically emergency situation in the country, and it is expected that their support will drop,” says Bursaq.
Duško Radosavljević does not see the consolidation of the regime and lists the problems the authorities are facing: "It is difficult to fill the budget, no one wants to sign permits for infrastructure work, he entered into a serious conflict with the Bosniaks, he did not do very well in Užice." "It is difficult to say what consolidation is. A conversation with Macron? Or is it consolidation that transforms seven public companies into seven limited liability companies to repay some debts? Maybe he sees as consolidation the fact that he has surrounded himself with a large number of police who protect him from direct encounters with rebellious citizens," Radosavljević concluded for DW.
On the other hand, Dejan Bursac says that the claims that the regime is falling or that it is being consolidated are not mutually exclusive. "It seems to me that Vučić is approaching the electoral method of the SNS. I think he has understood that this will have to end only with elections. But there we are waiting for an undemocratic process, in which all electoral manipulations will be unleashed to the maximum," concludes our interlocutor.
Agony or consolidation of the regime
Protests in Serbia do not stop, but due to increasing repression and continued lawlessness, rebellious citizens often say that the regime has consolidated and that some kind of initiative is on its side. However, there are also many who think that Vučić is finished and that this is just the agony of a failed regime. /DW/
