On Sunday, September 20, citizens in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will head to the polls for their regional parliament elections. The election date has also been confirmed by Germany's Federal Election Office. The two elections are taking place in an important climate for German politics, as the AfD has gained ground in the eastern states, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU is facing poor results in several regional polls. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the race for first place remains very close between the SPD of Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig and the AfD.
According to the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, published on September 17, the SPD has 37% of the vote, while the AfD has 36%. The CDU has 6%, Die Linke has 9%, the Greens have 5% and the BSW has 4%. The institute emphasizes that these are project values and not predictions of the final result. A previous INSA poll, meanwhile, put the AfD at 37% and the SPD at 35%, confirming that the gap between the two parties remains narrow. In the 2021 elections, the SPD won 39.6% of the vote, the AfD 16.7%, and the CDU 13.3%.
In Berlin, too, the race remains open. According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Die Linke is on 22%, CDU on 20%, AfD on 18%, Greens on 15% and SPD on 12%. BSW is on 4%. Another measurement by Infratest dimap gives very similar results: Die Linke 21%, CDU 20%, AfD 18%, Greens 16% and SPD 12%. The main issue of the campaign in the capital has been the housing crisis and rising rents. According to Reuters, rents in Berlin have risen significantly since 2014, while the lack of housing has become one of the main election topics.
What does the result mean for Merz?
The results in the two states will also be closely watched at the federal level. Friedrich Merz and the CDU are facing political pressure after the AfD's rise in eastern Germany and the CDU's poor showing in some regional polls. Reuters described the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as a politically difficult moment for the chancellor. However, the outcome of these elections does not automatically determine the future of the federal government. It could influence the debate within the CDU and political relations in Berlin, but any change at the federal level would require separate political and institutional processes.
In Berlin, the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll also shows that the current CDU-SPD coalition would not have a majority according to the September 17 projection. The institute estimates that several other combinations could secure a majority, but these depend on the actual result and post-election negotiations.
So the focus of September 20 is twofold: in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern it will be seen whether the SPD can maintain its lead over the AfD, while in Berlin the vote could change the balance of the coalition in the capital. In both cases, the results will provide an important indicator of the state of German politics, without being a direct vote for Merz's federal government.
