As the capital continues to attract population from other regions of the country, the number of births is falling rapidly, almost twice the national average.

In the first nine months of 2026, births in the Tirana region decreased by 8%, according to INSTAT data, while the number of births nationally fell by -4.7%.

The capital is becoming increasingly expensive for young families. The sharp increase in apartment and rent prices, the cost of living, and higher expenses for families with children are making it more difficult to start and expand a family, despite the greater employment and income opportunities that Tirana offers.

According to INSTAT, in the first 9 months of 2026, 647 fewer births were registered in Tirana than in the same period of 2025, making the capital the main determinant of the decline in births in the country.

Across Albania, 16.016 babies were registered from January to September 2026, or 789 fewer births. Tirana alone contributed about 82% of the net decrease nationwide. In the other 11 counties combined, births decreased by only 1,6%.

Tirana continues to be the main economic and employment center in the country, where investments, businesses and a significant portion of young people moving from other regions are concentrated. But the benefits of greater economic opportunities are being offset by the increasingly high cost of living.

The biggest obstacle for young couples is housing. Apartment prices in Tirana have been rising much faster than incomes, making it increasingly difficult to buy a home without a substantial loan or financial support from family. Rent also poses a huge burden for couples looking to live independently.

According to a previous calculation by Monitor, the ratio of house prices to disposable income per capita in Albania increased by 76,3% during the period 2015–2025. This means that, relative to income, purchasing the same house has become significantly more difficult than ten years ago. Although this indicator is national, the pressure on house prices is particularly acute for young families looking to live in Tirana.

In addition to housing, young families also face high costs for childcare, private nurseries and kindergartens, transportation and other daily services. In Tirana, distances and travel times have increased, as organizing family life becomes more costly and difficult, especially when both parents work.

These economic pressures may influence the decision to postpone having a first child or limit the number of children. A couple who must afford a high mortgage for the apartment, rent, and daily expenses may find it more difficult to plan for family expansion.

Gjirokastra with the biggest decline, Dibra and Kukës with growth

Nationally, the largest percentage drop in births during the first nine months of 2026 was recorded in Gjirokastra, with 11,6%. The number of births in this region dropped to only 191, from 216 in the same period last year.

After Gjirokastra, Tirana ranks with a decrease of 8%, followed by Durrës, where births shrank by 7,6%, from 1.729 to 1.598. More moderate decreases were recorded in Shkodra (-3,2%), Fier (-2,4%), Korça (-1,5%) and Vlora (-0,3%).

In contrast, five regions recorded an increase in births. Dibra leads with an increase of 7,4%, from 499 to 536 births, followed by Kukës with 5,6%, from 376 to 397. Elbasan (1,6%), Berat (1,2%) and Lezha (1,1%) also recorded slight increases.

In other regions, especially those that have been facing emigration and youth exodus for years, the number of births remains much lower than a decade ago. This year's small increases are not enough to change the long-term trend.

But the most worrying development is that even Tirana, which has benefited from the population shift from other regions, is registering a rapid contraction in births. The city is attracting people to work and live, but high costs are making it increasingly difficult to build a family life.

If this trend continues, the concentration of population and economic activity in the capital will not be sufficient to compensate for the decline in birth rates. For young families, employment opportunities and wage levels are only one side of the coin, the other side is how much of their income is left after paying for housing and basic living expenses./Monitor